Copula‐based semiparametric analysis for time series data with detection limits

The analysis of time series data with detection limits is challenging due to the high‐dimensional integral involved in the likelihood. Existing methods are either computationally demanding or rely on restrictive parametric distributional assumptions. We propose a semiparametric approach, where the temporal dependence is captured by parametric copula, while the marginal distribution is estimated non‐parametrically. Utilizing the properties of copulas, we develop a new copula‐based sequential sampling algorithm, which provides a convenient way to calculate the censored likelihood. Even without full parametric distributional assumptions, the proposed method still allows us to efficiently compute the conditional quantiles of the censored response at a future time point, and thus construct both point and interval predictions. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, and demonstrate through simulation and the analysis of a water quality data that the proposed method is more flexible and leads to more accurate predictions than Gaussian‐based methods for non‐normal data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 438–454; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

上海家政服务业发展调研报告

面对广阔的家政市场需求,上海应当积极抓住机遇,通过扶持若干龙头企业,优化家政服务市场环境;充分发挥行业协会的协调引领作用,做好行业标准建设与自律;培育一支理念先进、眼光深远的高素质职业经理人队伍,深入推动家政服务品牌化发展;提量增质,不断引入更多从业人员,提升整体从业人员素质,建立以服务质量为核心的规则秩序.同时,还要重视家政服务业的法律法规建设,充分保障各方的合法权益,促进上海家政服务业健康发展.     

“四史”教育融入高校思政课教学的五维逻辑进路

历史照亮过去，历史启迪未来。以党史、新中国史、改革开放史、社会主义发展史为核心内容的“四史”教育，是以历史为基础的思想政治教育。从党史、新中国史、改革开放史、社会主义发展史中挖掘思想政治理论课教育资源，对高校传承红色基因、落实立德树人根本任务具有重要的指导意义。以庆祝中国共产党成立100周年为契机，将“四史”教育融入高校思想政治理论课教学，必须遵循相应的逻辑理路：树立正确党史观、坚定理想信念的价值追求是融入的逻辑立场；强化大历史观、理解党的伟大贡献是融入的逻辑方法；坚持内在统一性、把握“四史”教育的整体性逻辑是融入的基本前提；抓住侧重点、精准对接各门大学生思想政治理论课程是融入的逻辑核心；坚持实践逻辑、引导大学生从“四史”中汲取智慧和力量是融入的根本遵循。     

An additive–multiplicative mean model for panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes

This paper discusses regression analysis of panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes. For the problem, a general mean model is presented that can allow both additive and multiplicative effects of covariates on the underlying point process. In addition, the proportional rates model and the accelerated failure time model are employed to describe possible covariate effects on the observation process and the dropout or follow‐up process, respectively. For estimation of regression parameters, some estimating equation‐based procedures are developed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a resampling approach is proposed for estimating a covariance matrix of the proposed estimator and a model checking procedure is also provided. Results from an extensive simulation study indicate that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations, and it is applied to a motivating set of real data.     

Midwifery management of second-degree perineal tears in New Zealand: A cross-sectional survey of practice

Background

Second-degree tears are the most common form of perineal trauma occurring after vaginal birth managed by New Zealand midwives, although little is known about midwives’ perineal practice.

Water and the History of China*

Water is the source of all life, and is closely related to human civilization. It had a special significance in China, so the ancient Chinese created the dragon god as a symbol of China, the Chinese and Chinese civilization. It can be said that the unique hydrological conditions on the territory of China created three great historical miracles: China, the Chinese people, and Chinese civilization. The Chinese have dedicated more effort than people in any other countries to water control and water use in order to make effective use of water resources and prevent flooding. It is their unparalleled achievements that have laid the foundation for these three miracles. Today, the Chinese people are facing unprecedented challenges in water control and water use. Exploring the historical Chinese relationship with water offers a good opportunity to understand the important role that water plays in long-term social development.     

戈公振《世界报业考察记》校读记

商务印书馆2017年整理版戈公振遗著《世界报业考察记》，嘉惠学林甚大，然其中有少量文字讹误，对此略做校正与辨析。     

人口老龄化、科技创新与新型城镇化的关系研究——基于省际面板数据的PVAR实证分析

借助PVAR方法系统考察了人口老龄化、科技创新与新型城镇化三者的互动关系和影响机制。结果显示:人口老龄化抑制新型城镇化的发展,科技创新对新型城镇化的影响为先抑制后促进,且具有滞后效应,科技创新能够缓解人口老龄化对新型城镇化的影响。据此,提出了应对老龄化、以科技创新为支撑推进新型城镇化建设的建议。